The Harvest Now, Decrypt Later Problem

Understanding why your encrypted data is at risk today

Nation-state actors and sophisticated adversaries are intercepting and storing encrypted traffic today. When cryptographically relevant quantum computers become available (estimated 2030-2035), all data encrypted with current RSA/ECC algorithms becomes readable.

Sensitive contracts, financial data, medical records, government communications — all retroactively exposed. The threat is not future — it is happening now.

Today

Data Intercepted

Encrypted traffic captured and stored by adversaries

2024-2030

Data Stored

Harvested data awaits future quantum decryption

2030-2035

Quantum Break

Cryptographically relevant quantum computers arrive

Future

Data Exposed

All RSA/ECC encrypted data becomes readable

What's Changing

New cryptographic standards are here

NIST finalised three post-quantum standards in August 2024:

  • FIPS 203ML-KEM for key encapsulation (replacing key exchange)
  • FIPS 204ML-DSA for digital signatures
  • FIPS 205SLH-DSA for stateless hash-based signatures

These replace RSA and ECC in all new deployments. The recommended approach: run PQC alongside classical crypto during the transition period.

Who Must Act Now

Priority sectors for quantum-safe migration

Financial Services

Regulatory pressure and long-lived sensitive data require proactive quantum readiness.

Healthcare

Patient records with 20+ year retention policies must remain confidential through the quantum transition.

Government & Public Sector

National security and classified data demand immediate attention to quantum threats.

Legal

Attorney-client privilege, contracts, and e-signatures require long-term cryptographic integrity.

Critical Infrastructure

Energy, telecoms, and transport systems must maintain security across decades of operation.

Document Management

ECM platforms with long-term archival requirements need future-proof encryption.

The Regulatory Landscape

Compliance requirements are evolving

EU Cyber Resilience Act

Mandatory cybersecurity requirements for products with digital elements. PQC readiness is increasingly relevant.

NIS2 Directive

Requires "state of the art" security measures — PQC is increasingly interpreted as meeting this threshold.

ENISA Recommendations

Published PQC migration guidance recommending hybrid approaches and early preparation.

UK NCSC Guidance

"Prepare, don't panic" — but preparation means concrete technical steps, not just awareness.

eIDAS 2.0

Qualified electronic signatures must remain secure over their validity period — PQC signatures are essential.

US Executive Order (NSM-10)

Requires federal agencies to inventory cryptographic systems and prepare migration plans.